Consensus PnL $245K · win rate 58% (3810–2703, n=6513) · PM monthly #499 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$244.9K
Record
3810W / 2703L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 6513 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1272
Source
PM monthly #499
Trades
911
Markets
7,184
Volume
$8.3M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 12 on the consensus side (75%)- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Chiefs $5.2K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Over $1.9K · now 45¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Dolphins $1.8K · now 47¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs ZimbabweAfghanistan $1.4K · now 94¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins $1.3K · now 55¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (36% of 12)
- Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Over $1.1K · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $950 · now 96¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)Jaguars $554 · now 56¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Colts)
Specialties
3,321 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 49¢- Tennis
+61 pts
side won 99% of 789 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +61%
- Esports
+60 pts
side won 100% of 139 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +61%
- MLB
+50 pts
side won 100% of 380 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 95% of 210)
- 30–50¢: 53%(won 99% of 1770)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 100% of 1062)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 99% of 279)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.