Hapoel Holon vs. SC RASTA Vechta
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hapoel Holon (83%) · Hapoel Holon at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Hapoel Holon
6
Hapoel Holon 83%
$1.3K
$21.03
50.9¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHapoel Holon at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Hapoel Holon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Hapoel Holonavg 50.5¢ | $740.06 | $754.26 | +$14.34 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
 VeryLucky888 | Hapoel Holonavg 52.4¢ | $260.96 | $256.55 | -$4.42 | 50% 76-76 (152) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Hapoel Holonavg 50¢ | $131 | $133.43 | +$2.43 | 100% 29-0 (29) |
SE sentrio | Hapoel Holonavg 50.6¢ | $109.49 | $111.32 | +$1.83 | 24% 59-185 (244) |
DR dribblingbanana69CTR<$100 | SC RASTA Vechtaavg 42.9¢ | $54.1 | $61.14 | +$7.03 | — 0-1 (1) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Hapoel Holonavg 53¢ | $12.51 | $6.44 | -$0.19 | 36% 86-155 (241) |
Invested
$740.06
Value
$754.26
PnL
+$14.34
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
VeryLucky888Invested
$260.96
Value
$256.55
PnL
-$4.42
Record
50%
76-76 (152)
Invested
$131
Value
$133.43
PnL
+$2.43
Record
100%
29-0 (29)
Invested
$109.49
Value
$111.32
PnL
+$1.83
Record
24%
59-185 (244)
Invested
$54.1
Value
$61.14
PnL
+$7.03
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$6.44
PnL
-$0.19
Record
36%
86-155 (241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.