BC Aris Thessaloniki vs. Rigas Zelli
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BC Aris Thessaloniki (75%) · BC Aris Thessaloniki at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
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Avoid
BC Aris Thessaloniki
4
BC Aris Thessaloniki 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$9.33
88.4¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBC Aris Thessaloniki at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 88.9¢ | $940.05 | $935.76 | -$4.29 | — 2-6 (8) |
FL Flaznorp | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 86.5¢ | $224.28 | $195.86 | -$28.42 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Rigas Zelliavg 11¢ | $64.27 | $109.27 | +$45 | 46% 255-304 (559) |
| └ Rigas Zelli leg | Rigas Zelliavg 11¢ | $35.71 | $84.41 | +$48.7 | |
| └ BC Aris Thessaloniki leg | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 85¢ | $28.56 | $24.86 | -$3.7 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Rigas Zelliavg 12.5¢ | $25.93 | $52 | +$27.23 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
SE sentrio<$100 | BC Aris Thessalonikiavg 86.7¢ | $31.35 | $27.5 | -$3.85 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
Invested
$940.05
Value
$935.76
PnL
-$4.29
Record
—
2-6 (8)
Invested
$224.28
Value
$195.86
PnL
-$28.42
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$64.27
Value
$109.27
PnL
+$45
Record
46%
255-304 (559)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.93
Value
$52
PnL
+$27.23
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$31.35
Value
$27.5
PnL
-$3.85
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.