Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maccabi Ashdod, while the market favors Bnei Herzliya Basket (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bnei Herzliya Basket vs. Maccabi Ashdod
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maccabi Ashdod (100%) · Maccabi Ashdod at 32¢ · $821 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Maccabi Ashdod
5
Maccabi Ashdod 100%
$820.7
$19.08
30.8¢ → 31.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMaccabi Ashdod at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Bnei Herzliya Basket 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Maccabi Ashdod. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR | Maccabi Ashdodavg 31¢ | $535.68 | $544.32 | +$8.64 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Maccabi Ashdodavg 30.2¢ | $193.25 | $201.37 | +$8.12 | 50% 49324-48846 (98170) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Maccabi Ashdodavg 30¢ | $39.74 | $41.73 | +$1.99 | 45% 2826-3461 (6287) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Maccabi Ashdodavg 31¢ | $26.66 | $27.09 | +$0.43 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Maccabi Ashdodavg 30¢ | $6.29 | $6.2 | -$0.1 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
Invested
$535.68
Value
$544.32
PnL
+$8.64
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$193.25
Value
$201.37
PnL
+$8.12
Record
50%
49324-48846 (98170)
Invested
$39.74
Value
$41.73
PnL
+$1.99
Record
45%
2826-3461 (6287)
Invested
$26.66
Value
$27.09
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.