Soles de Mexicali vs. Astros de Jalisco
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Soles de Mexicali (60%) · Soles de Mexicali at 67¢ · $488 held · ends Nov 20
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Avoid
Soles de Mexicali
5
Soles de Mexicali 60%
$488.26
-$6.84
63.2¢ → 66.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSoles de Mexicali at 67%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Soles de Mexicali. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Soles de Mexicaliavg 62.8¢ | $258.97 | $267.84 | +$8.87 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Astros de Jaliscoavg 38.1¢ | $136.32 | $119.81 | -$16.5 | 52% 472-438 (910) |
ST stepanka1234<$100 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 63¢ | $59.57 | $61.46 | +$1.89 | — 3-7 (10) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 67.2¢ | $29.99 | $29.01 | -$0.98 | 38% 358-588 (946) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Astros de Jaliscoavg 33.9¢ | $10.26 | $10.13 | -$0.13 | 9% 13-129 (142) |
Invested
$258.97
Value
$267.84
PnL
+$8.87
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$136.32
Value
$119.81
PnL
-$16.5
Record
52%
472-438 (910)
Invested
$59.57
Value
$61.46
PnL
+$1.89
Record
—
3-7 (10)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$29.01
PnL
-$0.98
Record
38%
358-588 (946)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.13
PnL
-$0.13
Record
9%
13-129 (142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.