Basquete Osasco vs. Mogi das Cruzes
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mogi das Cruzes (60%) · Mogi das Cruzes at 86¢ · $374 held · ends Nov 19
⚠️
Avoid
Mogi das Cruzes
5
Mogi das Cruzes 60%
$373.83
-$1.47
84.7¢ → 86¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMogi das Cruzes at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Mogi das Cruzes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Mogi das Cruzesavg 84¢ | $162.13 | $165.99 | +$3.86 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
ST stepanka1234<$100 | Mogi das Cruzesavg 86¢ | $92.87 | $92.87 | +$0 | — 3-7 (10) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Basquete Osascoavg 14.9¢ | $57.96 | $54.47 | -$3.49 | 52% 472-438 (910) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Basquete Osascoavg 15¢ | $36.78 | $34.33 | -$2.45 | 9% 13-129 (142) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Mogi das Cruzesavg 84¢ | $25.57 | $26.18 | +$0.61 | 38% 358-588 (946) |
Invested
$162.13
Value
$165.99
PnL
+$3.86
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$92.87
Value
$92.87
PnL
+$0
Record
—
3-7 (10)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$57.96
Value
$54.47
PnL
-$3.49
Record
52%
472-438 (910)
Invested
$36.78
Value
$34.33
PnL
-$2.45
Record
9%
13-129 (142)
Invested
$25.57
Value
$26.18
PnL
+$0.61
Record
38%
358-588 (946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.