Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 31¢ · $408 held · ends Nov 7

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$408

Combined PnL

$0.85

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 30.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$187.3

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$0.8

No2 traders

Total Value$20.7

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$136	+$35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$64	-$35
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$126.77	$128.88	+$2.11	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$29.68	$28.98	-$0.7	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$16.37	$16.31	-$0.07	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.8	$13.9	+$0.1	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$13.68	$13.13	-$0.55	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$6.91	$6.8	-$0.05	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

Invested

$126.77

Value

$128.88

PnL

+$2.11

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.68

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$0.7

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.37

Value

$16.31

PnL

-$0.07

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.