Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 82% (856–193, n=1049) · PM monthly #306 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.0K
Record
856W / 193L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 1049 settled
Batting Avg
84.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#379
Source
PM monthly #306
Trades
502
Markets
1,652
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 13 on the consensus side (54%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $776 · now 78¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5Over $158 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will APO Levadiakos FC win on 2026-11-01?No $63 · now 46¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (70% of 11)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $63 · now 88¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $35 · now 76¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-11-01?Yes $33 · now 46¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (No)
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?No $28 · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Aris Thessaloniki win on 2026-11-01?No $14 · now 83¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
Specialties
343 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+39 pts
side won 100% of 206 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +30%
- Soccer
+36 pts
side won 100% of 125 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 100% of 70)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 100% of 147)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 113)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.