Will Club Always Ready vs. Club ABB end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 65¢ · $229 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$229.49
-$0.24
90.5¢ → 65¢
-28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91¢ | $112.28 | $111.05 | -$1.23 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $74.42 | $74.65 | +$0.24 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $213.63 | $24.57 | +$0.92 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $14.11 | $14.64 | +$0.52 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $5.26 | $4.58 | -$0.68 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
Invested
$112.28
Value
$111.05
PnL
-$1.23
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$74.42
Value
$74.65
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$213.63
Value
$24.57
PnL
+$0.92
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$14.11
Value
$14.64
PnL
+$0.52
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$4.58
PnL
-$0.68
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.