Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-11-06?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 18¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$300.04
-$45.43
22¢ → 18¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $268.52 | $226.44 | -$42.07 | 51% 26319-24948 (51267) |
 BasquetipsterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $47.39 | $44.9 | -$2.49 | 53% 1787-1560 (3347) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $14.19 | $12.44 | -$0.85 | 50% 26091-25752 (51843) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $12.12 | $12.15 | +$0.03 | 49% 1540-1624 (3164) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $4.14 | $4.1 | -$0.04 | 50% 1585-1603 (3188) |
Invested
$268.52
Value
$226.44
PnL
-$42.07
Record
51%
26319-24948 (51267)
BasquetipsterCTR<$100Invested
$47.39
Value
$44.9
PnL
-$2.49
Record
53%
1787-1560 (3347)
Invested
$14.19
Value
$12.44
PnL
-$0.85
Record
50%
26091-25752 (51843)
Invested
$12.12
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
1540-1624 (3164)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
1585-1603 (3188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.