Consensus PnL $46K · win rate 80% (1546–395, n=1941) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$46.0K
Record
1546W / 395L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 1941 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#427
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
2,094
Markets
2,538
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No $1.6K · now 82¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?No $934 · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?No $905 · now 92¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- EU dissolves before 2027?No $468 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 1WIN (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs1WIN $172 · now 84¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (HOTU)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No $74 · now 88¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $64 · now 4¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
Specialties
1,584 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 56¢- College Basketball
+51 pts
side won 100% of 189 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +52%
- NHL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 152 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- NFL
+53 pts
side won 100% of 58 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +51%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 100% of 568)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 100% of 647)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 323)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.