Will Cameron Ward have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $972 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$972
$217.74
66.2¢ → 66¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $553.54 | $594.34 | +$40.8 | 65% 501-275 (776) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 44¢ | $102.11 | $228.45 | +$126.34 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 57.8¢ | $96.05 | $145.66 | +$49.61 | 53% 23719-20885 (44604) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $2.57 | $3.55 | +$0.99 | 58% 826-586 (1412) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.