Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 64% (425–237, n=662) · PM monthly #861 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.1K
Record
425W / 237L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 662 settled
Batting Avg
76.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#973
Source
PM monthly #861
Trades
372
Markets
767
Volume
$277.3K
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 16 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 85¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $821 · now 90¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Yes $770 · now 59¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (50% of 5)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $713 · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $504 · now 98¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?No $385 · now 78¢ · in at 77¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?No $379 · now 76¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $360 · now 73¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
579 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 62¢- NBA
+30 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +12%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 84% of 85 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +5%
- MMA
+4 pts
side won 60% of 101 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 38% of 16 at an average 49¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 16% of 64)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 47% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 65% of 182)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 91% of 244)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.