Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Haven Chargers, while the market favors Army Black Knights (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Army Black Knights vs. New Haven Chargers
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold New Haven Chargers (60%) · New Haven Chargers at 44¢ · $450 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
New Haven Chargers
5
New Haven Chargers 60%
$449.71
$4.58
47¢ → 44¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNew Haven Chargers at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Army Black Knights 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on New Haven Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | New Haven Chargersavg 47¢ | $414.35 | $419.11 | +$4.77 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Army Black Knightsavg 51.9¢ | $11.42 | $11.22 | -$0.2 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | New Haven Chargersavg 47¢ | $9.21 | $9.38 | +$0.16 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Army Black Knightsavg 52¢ | $7.8 | $7.65 | -$0.15 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | New Haven Chargersavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.35 | +$0 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
Invested
$414.35
Value
$419.11
PnL
+$4.77
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$11.42
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.16
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.