Campbell Fighting Camels vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers: O/U 146.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.6K
-$46.75
56.2¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$48.64 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $74.82 | $74.39 | -$0.43 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $48 | $50.59 | +$4.34 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $30.08 | $28.9 | -$1.18 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $6.05 | $5.23 | -$0.83 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
Invested
$1,472.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$48.64
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$74.82
Value
$74.39
PnL
-$0.43
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$50.59
PnL
+$4.34
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$30.08
Value
$28.9
PnL
-$1.18
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$5.23
PnL
-$0.83
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.