Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. East Texas A&M Lions: O/U 137.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 67¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$245.59

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 67¢

+61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$700.94

Total Shares1,457

Combined PnL+$129.19

Under2 traders

Total Value$699.57

Total Shares1,390

Combined PnL+$116.4

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 36.3¢	$524.28	$655.6	+$131.32	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 41.7¢	$539.74	$645.77	+$106.03	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$183.13	$174.2	-$8.93	57% 4029-3048 (7077)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$109.82	$112.35	+$2.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$73.31	$61.85	-$11.45
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 40¢	$43.43	$53.8	+$10.37	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 36.4¢	$47.47	$45.34	-$2.13	48% 1352-1466 (2818)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$524.28

Value

$655.6

PnL

+$131.32

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$539.74

Value

$645.77

PnL

+$106.03

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$183.13

Value

$174.2

PnL

-$8.93

Record

57%

4029-3048 (7077)

Both legs:

Over$109.8245¢+$2.53

Under$73.3164¢-$11.45

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$43.43

Value

$53.8

PnL

+$10.37

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.47

Value

$45.34

PnL

-$2.13

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.