Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders, while the market favors Illinois Fighting Illini (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders (80%) · Texas Tech Red Raiders at 46¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Texas Tech Red Raiders
5
Texas Tech Red Raiders 80%
1 arb excluded
$571.27
$2.44
45.3¢ → 45.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois Fighting Illini 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 45.3¢ | $276.31 | $277.48 | +$1.16 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 44.9¢ | $190.56 | $195.23 | +$4.68 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
| └ Texas Tech Red Raiders leg | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 44.9¢ | $121.06 | $122.63 | +$1.57 | |
| └ Illinois Fighting Illini leg | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 52.2¢ | $69.49 | $72.6 | +$3.11 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 45¢ | $83.7 | $45.5 | +$1.36 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 45.5¢ | $37.13 | $36.69 | -$0.44 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 53¢ | $12.87 | $13.18 | +$0.32 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 45¢ | $3.15 | $3.19 | +$0.04 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$276.31
Value
$277.48
PnL
+$1.16
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$190.56
Value
$195.23
PnL
+$4.68
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$83.7
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$1.36
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Invested
$37.13
Value
$36.69
PnL
-$0.44
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$13.18
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.