Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans: O/U 148.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 46¢ · $724 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$723.98
$173.39
53¢ → 45.5¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 52.2¢ | $225.35 | $319.58 | +$94.23 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 52.4¢ | $140.06 | $199.24 | +$59.18 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 57.4¢ | $142.14 | $162.15 | +$33.36 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.7¢ | $28.86 | $30.93 | +$2.07 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $27.53 | $12.09 | -$15.44 | 51% 300-292 (592) |
Invested
$225.35
Value
$319.58
PnL
+$94.23
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1CTRInvested
$140.06
Value
$199.24
PnL
+$59.18
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$142.14
Value
$162.15
PnL
+$33.36
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$28.86
Value
$30.93
PnL
+$2.07
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$27.53
Value
$12.09
PnL
-$15.44
Record
51%
300-292 (592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.