Nicholls Colonels vs. Tulane Green Wave
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane Green Wave (80%) · Tulane Green Wave at 80¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Tulane Green Wave
5
Tulane Green Wave 80%
$53.18
$0.36
Research grade
AvoidTulane Green Wave at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Tulane Green Wave. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $27.65 | $27.83 | +$0.18 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $10.98 | $10.98 | -$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 78¢ | $7.84 | $7.94 | +$0.1 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.98 | +$0.02 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Nicholls Colonelsavg 20¢ | $2.4 | $2.46 | +$0.06 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$27.65
Value
$27.83
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$10.98
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$7.94
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.46
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.