Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tulane Green Wave, while the market favors Nicholls Colonels (64%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Tulane Green Wave (-9.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane Green Wave (100%) · Tulane Green Wave at 37¢ · $651 held · ended Nov 11

Tulane Green Wave37¢Nicholls Colonels63¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tulane Green Wave

Consensus Traders

Tulane Green Wave 100%

Total Value

$650.81

Combined PnL

$87.27

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 36.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTulane Green Wave at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tulane Green Wave

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Nicholls Colonels 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tulane Green Wave37%

Nicholls Colonels64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulane Green Wave6 traders

Total Value$650.81

Total Shares1,202

Combined PnL+$87.27

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Tulane Green Wave. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Tulane Green Wave 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Tulane Green Waveavg 45¢	$225	$302.5	+$77.5	56% 488-383 (871)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tulane Green Waveavg 46.6¢	$194.98	$201.59	+$7.61	48% 949-1019 (1968)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 46.8¢	$82.84	$79.65	-$3.19	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 45.6¢	$29.96	$37.86	+$7.89	49% 444-470 (914)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 49.1¢	$29.41	$26.96	-$2.45	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.1	34% 233-457 (690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$225

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$77.5

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

38791873984189CTR

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$194.98

Value

$201.59

PnL

+$7.61

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$82.84

Value

$79.65

PnL

-$3.19

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$29.96

Value

$37.86

PnL

+$7.89

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$29.41

Value

$26.96

PnL

-$2.45

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

sentrioCTR<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

AvoidTulane Green Wave at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tulane Green Wave

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Nicholls Colonels 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Tulane Green Wave. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Tulane Green Wave 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tulane Green Wave wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.