Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Saint Louis Billikens, while the market favors Northern Kentucky Norse (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-23.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Louis Billikens (33%) · Saint Louis Billikens at 48¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Saint Louis Billikens
6
Saint Louis Billikens 33%
$192.61
$2.44
47¢ → 48¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSaint Louis Billikens at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Kentucky Norse 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Saint Louis Billikens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Saint Louis Billikensavg 47¢ | $109.98 | $112.32 | +$2.34 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Northern Kentucky Norseavg 50.9¢ | $54.52 | $54.62 | +$0.1 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Saint Louis Billikensavg 47¢ | $14.26 | $14.26 | +$0 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Northern Kentucky Norseavg 51¢ | $5.29 | $5.29 | +$0 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Northern Kentucky Norseavg 51¢ | $3.57 | $3.57 | +$0 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Northern Kentucky Norseavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
Invested
$109.98
Value
$112.32
PnL
+$2.34
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$54.52
Value
$54.62
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.