Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Norfolk State Spartans
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Old Dominion Monarchs (80%) · Old Dominion Monarchs at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Old Dominion Monarchs
5
Old Dominion Monarchs 80%
$1.1K
-$40.01
69.1¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOld Dominion Monarchs at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Old Dominion Monarchsavg 69¢ | $703.17 | $677.69 | -$25.48 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Old Dominion Monarchsavg 69¢ | $336.1 | $323.92 | -$12.18 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Old Dominion Monarchsavg 70¢ | $140 | $66.5 | -$2.5 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Old Dominion Monarchsavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.33 | -$0.17 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Norfolk State Spartansavg 29¢ | $2.03 | $2.35 | +$0.32 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
Invested
$703.17
Value
$677.69
PnL
-$25.48
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$336.1
Value
$323.92
PnL
-$12.18
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$140
Value
$66.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.17
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.32
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.