Spread: Colorado State Rams (-14.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado State Rams (80%) · Colorado State Rams at 57¢ · $993 held · ends Nov 12

Colorado State Rams57¢Portland State Vikings43¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

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Colorado State Rams

Consensus Traders

Colorado State Rams 80%

Total Value

$992.64

Combined PnL

-$3.89

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidColorado State Rams at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado State Rams

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colorado State Rams57%

Portland State Vikings43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado State Rams4 traders

Total Value$987.85

Total Shares1,740

Combined PnL-$3.95

Portland State Vikings1 trader

Total Value$4.78

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.06

Colorado State Rams — 80%Portland State Vikings — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Colorado State Ramsavg 57¢	$831.63	$838.93	+$7.29	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189<$100	Colorado State Ramsavg 57¢	$80.37	$74.73	-$5.64	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
HI hi774c<$100	Colorado State Ramsavg 57¢	$76.95	$71.55	-$5.4	14% 76-471 (547)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 42¢	$4.73	$4.78	+$0.06	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Colorado State Ramsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.65	-$0.2	32% 291-617 (908)

HomeRunHazard

Colorado State Rams

Invested

$831.63

Value

$838.93

PnL

+$7.29

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189<$100

Colorado State Rams

Invested

$80.37

Value

$74.73

PnL

-$5.64

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

hi774c<$100

Colorado State Rams

Invested

$76.95

Value

$71.55

PnL

-$5.4

Record

14%

76-471 (547)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

ameisgoat11<$100

Colorado State Rams

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

Research grade

AvoidColorado State Rams at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colorado State Rams

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado State Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.