Spread: Baylor Bears (-20.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yale Bulldogs (40%) · Yale Bulldogs at 53¢ · $477 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yale Bulldogs
5
Yale Bulldogs 40%
$476.86
$7.79
49.2¢ → 52.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYale Bulldogs at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yale Bulldogs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yale Bulldogsavg 47.8¢ | $225.96 | $245.75 | +$19.79 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Baylor Bearsavg 47¢ | $109.03 | $110.23 | +$1.2 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yale Bulldogsavg 52.5¢ | $211 | $104 | -$13 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Baylor Bearsavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9.4 | +$0.2 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Baylor Bearsavg 50.5¢ | $7.7 | $7.3 | -$0.4 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
Invested
$225.96
Value
$245.75
PnL
+$19.79
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$109.03
Value
$110.23
PnL
+$1.2
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888Invested
$211
Value
$104
PnL
-$13
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$0.4
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.