CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 96¢ · $45 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$45.13
$0.42
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $26.58 | $27.15 | +$0.57 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $12.79 | $12.6 | -$0.19 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.75 | +$0.15 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.69 | $0.58 | -$0.12 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
Invested
$26.58
Value
$27.15
PnL
+$0.57
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$12.79
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$0.12
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.