Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CP Mijas-Las Lagunas vs. Real Jaén CF: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 50¢ · $935 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$934.63
-$51.83
52.5¢ → 49.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 54¢ | $494.39 | $504.03 | +$9.64 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 52.9¢ | $478.64 | $414.15 | -$64.5 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $5.38 | $8.64 | +$3.26 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $5.69 | $5.46 | -$0.23 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.36 | +$0 | 25% 220-643 (863) |
Invested
$494.39
Value
$504.03
PnL
+$9.64
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
RN1CTRInvested
$478.64
Value
$414.15
PnL
-$64.5
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$3.26
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Invested
$5.69
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.23
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.36
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
220-643 (863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.