Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: CD Pamplona 1 - 1 SD Eibar?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 13¢ · $401 held · ends Nov 10

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$401.29

Combined PnL

$267.5

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$243.23

Total Shares1,843

Combined PnL+$212.01

No3 traders

Total Value$158.07

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$55.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SilentSharkCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.93	$122.54	+$121.62	58% 196-140 (336)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$21.71	$106.02	+$84.32	21% 572-2206 (2778)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$82	$71.18	-$4.51	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
AS asdkjhsad<$100	Noavg 0.1¢	$0.1	$61.67	+$61.57	—
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$29.05	$25.22	-$1.57	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$8.58	$14.66	+$6.08	48% 2283-2446 (4729)

SilentSharkCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$122.54

PnL

+$121.62

Record

58%

196-140 (336)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$21.71

Value

$106.02

PnL

+$84.32

Record

21%

572-2206 (2778)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$82

Value

$71.18

PnL

-$4.51

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

asdkjhsad<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$61.67

PnL

+$61.57

Record

—

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$1.57

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.58

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$6.08

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.8%

13.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$575.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

675.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.