Will UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.5K
-$1.43
94.5¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $845.91 | $799.8 | -$1.91 | 49% 93-98 (191) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 91.6¢ | $306.33 | $318.05 | +$11.72 | 48% 7159-7651 (14810) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.9¢ | $300 | $283.65 | -$7.2 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
DI dips.<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $42 | $39.71 | +$0.23 | 46% 7316-8503 (15819) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $41.33 | $39.08 | +$0.23 | 49% 1040-1098 (2138) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $14.1 | $9.61 | -$4.49 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$845.91
Value
$799.8
PnL
-$1.91
Record
49%
93-98 (191)
Invested
$306.33
Value
$318.05
PnL
+$11.72
Record
48%
7159-7651 (14810)
Invested
$300
Value
$283.65
PnL
-$7.2
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$42
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$0.23
Record
46%
7316-8503 (15819)
Invested
$41.33
Value
$39.08
PnL
+$0.23
Record
49%
1040-1098 (2138)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$9.61
PnL
-$4.49
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.