Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 49% (913–945, n=1858) · was PM monthly #813 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.6K
Record
913W / 945L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 1858 settled
Batting Avg
26.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1975
Source
PM monthly #813
Record (90 d)
1317/2580 · 51%
Trades
3,616
Markets
2,760
Volume
$457.9K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 26 on the consensus side (69%)- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $989 · now 20¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes $485 · now 72¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?Yes $409 · now 44¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No $326 · now 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?Yes $308 · now 81¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?Yes $238 · now 69¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?Yes $156 · now 32¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?Yes $104 · now 43¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
Specialties
1,150 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 45¢- College Football
+12 pts
side won 65% of 66 · avg entry 53¢
ROI −7%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 36% of 127 · avg entry 34¢
ROI −1%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 72% of 46 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 53% of 315 at an average 55¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 10% of 456)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 38% of 186)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 66% of 145)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 88% of 363)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.