Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$1.5K
$4
91.7¢ → 79.3¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$5.88 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 84.5¢ | $113.33 | $124.6 | +$11.27 | 53% 24313-21381 (45694) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Yes | $9.68 | $9.68 | -$1.4 | 68% 13288-6311 (19599) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.