Consensus PnL $834K · win rate 63% (6557–3813, n=10370) · PM monthly #12 · holds 330 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$833.5K
Record
6557W / 3813L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 10370 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1016
Source
PM monthly #12
Record (90 d)
4589/8912 · 51%
Trades
23,044
Markets
16,294
Volume
$24.4M
Top consensus positions
330 in listed consensus markets · 257 of 330 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $2.7K · now 41¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No $2.6K · now 77¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $2.4K · now 95¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (84% of 25)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $2.4K · now 65¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $2.4K · now 94¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (63% of 43)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $2.2K · now 71¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (73% of 39)
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes $2.1K · now 96¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $2.1K · now 62¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
6,420 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 42¢- Weather
+12 pts
side won 70% of 2209 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +20%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 41% of 1063 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +19%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 50% of 325 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +27%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 34% of 263 at an average 34¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 47%(won 14% of 3014)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 46% of 716)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 68% of 785)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 94% of 1905)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.