Spread: Bowling Green (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (71%) · Bowling Green at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
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Neutral
Bowling Green
7
Bowling Green 71%
$2.3K
$16.69
55¢ → 69.5¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBowling Green at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Bowling Greenavg 55¢ | $849.15 | $1.0K | +$162.41 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
PR primmCTR | Kent Stateavg 45¢ | $980.06 | $751.19 | -$228.87 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
65 6512395314597884 | Bowling Greenavg 55¢ | $330 | $393 | +$63 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 54.4¢ | $57.33 | $69.09 | +$11.76 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 54¢ | $39.42 | $47.82 | +$8.39 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 63¢ | $5.19 | $4.45 | -$0.74 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Kent Stateavg 37¢ | $3.05 | $3.79 | +$0.74 | 28% 279-704 (983) |
RN1Invested
$849.15
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$162.41
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$980.06
Value
$751.19
PnL
-$228.87
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$330
Value
$393
PnL
+$63
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$57.33
Value
$69.09
PnL
+$11.76
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$39.42
Value
$47.82
PnL
+$8.39
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$0.74
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$0.74
Record
28%
279-704 (983)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.