Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bowling Green, while the market favors Kent State (97%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Bowling Green (-7.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (83%) · Bowling Green at 3.0¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bowling Green
6
Bowling Green 83%
$2.8K
$514.38
54.1¢ → 3¢
-94% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBowling Green at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Kent State 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Kent Stateavg 45.5¢ | $980.39 | $2.0K | +$1.0K | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
 RN1CTR | Bowling Greenavg 54.5¢ | $859.74 | $693.15 | -$166.59 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 55.8¢ | $48.73 | $52.81 | +$4.07 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 50.4¢ | $50.37 | $51.5 | +$1.13 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 39¢ | $17.66 | $14.94 | -$2.72 | 28% 298-765 (1063) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Bowling Greenavg 54.7¢ | $331.91 | $9.11 | -$322.8 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$980.39
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
RN1CTRInvested
$859.74
Value
$693.15
PnL
-$166.59
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$48.73
Value
$52.81
PnL
+$4.07
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$50.37
Value
$51.5
PnL
+$1.13
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$17.66
Value
$14.94
PnL
-$2.72
Record
28%
298-765 (1063)
Invested
$331.91
Value
$9.11
PnL
-$322.8
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.