Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 49.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$3.0K
$137.15
57.8¢ → 64.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 58¢ | $915.24 | $978.36 | +$63.12 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $700.39 | $672.74 | -$27.65 | 62% 1003-623 (1626) |
PR primm | Overavg 61.8¢ | $520.27 | $522.17 | +$1.9 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 54¢ | $269.99 | $309.99 | +$40 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $205.86 | $246.31 | +$40.46 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 60.1¢ | $212.45 | $219.15 | +$6.7 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 54.5¢ | $103.06 | $70.68 | +$12.62 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
RN1Invested
$915.24
Value
$978.36
PnL
+$63.12
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$700.39
Value
$672.74
PnL
-$27.65
Record
62%
1003-623 (1626)
Invested
$520.27
Value
$522.17
PnL
+$1.9
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$269.99
Value
$309.99
PnL
+$40
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$205.86
Value
$246.31
PnL
+$40.46
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$212.45
Value
$219.15
PnL
+$6.7
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$103.06
Value
$70.68
PnL
+$12.62
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.