Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
O/U 53.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 48¢ · $139 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$138.7
-$21.05
50.4¢ → 48¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 51.2¢ | $105.4 | $96 | -$4.4 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.2¢ | $27.09 | $26.4 | -$0.69 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $15.96 | $16.3 | -$15.96 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.