Spread: Ohio (-7.5)
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (OH)
1
Miami (OH) 100%
5 arb excluded
$2.4K
$2.11
Research grade
NeutralMiami (OH) at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+25 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Ohioavg 54¢ | $1.2K | $951.18 | -$225.38 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 46¢ | $351.44 | $576.82 | +$225.38 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 54¢ | $825.12 | $374.36 | -$450.76 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Ohioavg 49.1¢ | $617.37 | $589.09 | -$28.28 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 36¢ | $175.78 | $368.53 | +$192.76 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 49.1¢ | $441.6 | $220.56 | -$221.04 | |
PR primmARB<$100 | Ohioavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $505.75 | -$113.96 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 54¢ | $622.14 | $282.27 | -$339.88 | |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 35¢ | $103.6 | $223.48 | +$225.92 | |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Ohioavg 56.1¢ | $374.21 | $281.72 | -$92.48 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 46¢ | $98.15 | $161.09 | +$62.94 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 56.1¢ | $276.06 | $120.64 | -$155.42 | |
PA Pan9XARB<$100 | Ohioavg 47.9¢ | $96 | $68.01 | -$15.58 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 44¢ | $20.24 | $34.73 | +$14.49 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 47.9¢ | $65.13 | $33.28 | -$30.07 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 45¢ | $3.12 | $5.23 | +$2.11 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,176.56
Value
$951.18
PnL
-$225.38
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Both legs:
Invested
$617.37
Value
$589.09
PnL
-$28.28
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,063.14
Value
$505.75
PnL
-$113.96
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Both legs:
Invested
$374.21
Value
$281.72
PnL
-$92.48
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Both legs:
Invested
$96
Value
$68.01
PnL
-$15.58
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.12
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$2.11
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.