Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 71¢ · $441 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$441.33
$9.83
65.1¢ → 70.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 65¢ | $364.9 | $375.2 | +$10.3 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $35.03 | $35.42 | +$0.39 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $19.14 | $18.82 | -$0.32 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $7.15 | $6.37 | -$0.78 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $5.28 | $5.52 | +$0.24 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
Invested
$364.9
Value
$375.2
PnL
+$10.3
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$35.03
Value
$35.42
PnL
+$0.39
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$19.14
Value
$18.82
PnL
-$0.32
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$6.37
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.