Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC: Draw at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 8.0¢ · $535 held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$534.51
-$569.82
41.1¢ → 8¢
-81% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
88h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WH whosay | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $188.68 | $202.47 | +$13.79 | 56% 1164-901 (2065) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $767.41 | $151.69 | -$589.38 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Yesavg 89¢ | $141.57 | $145.63 | +$4.06 | 74% 111-39 (150) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100 | Yesavg 72.2¢ | $20.27 | $25.69 | +$5.42 | 83% 89-18 (107) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.9¢ | $13.74 | $9.03 | -$3.71 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
Invested
$188.68
Value
$202.47
PnL
+$13.79
Record
56%
1164-901 (2065)
Invested
$767.41
Value
$151.69
PnL
-$589.38
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$141.57
Value
$145.63
PnL
+$4.06
Record
74%
111-39 (150)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121<$100Invested
$20.27
Value
$25.69
PnL
+$5.42
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$9.03
PnL
-$3.71
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.