Atalanta BC vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$2.77
56¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$1.8 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $810.43 | $822.28 | +$11.86 | |
SE sentrio | Noavg 56¢ | $238.76 | $236.62 | -$2.13 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56¢ | $138.29 | $138.29 | +$0 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56¢ | $134.5 | $134.5 | +$0 | 64% 9962-5592 (15554) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $53.57 | $53.54 | -$0.03 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $31.57 | $31.29 | -$0.28 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44¢ | $22 | $22.25 | +$0.25 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $14.36 | $13.97 | -$0.39 | 51% 1368-1329 (2697) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $9.25 | $9 | -$0.25 | 52% 1362-1281 (2643) |
Invested
$1,887.19
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.8
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.76
Value
$236.62
PnL
-$2.13
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
Invested
$138.29
Value
$138.29
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$134.5
Value
$134.5
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9962-5592 (15554)
Invested
$53.57
Value
$53.54
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.36
Value
$13.97
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
1368-1329 (2697)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
1362-1281 (2643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.