FC København vs. SK Iberia 1999: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 62¢ · $436 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$435.89
$7.5
57.4¢ → 61.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55.8¢ | $235.19 | $262.59 | +$11.67 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $121 | $122 | +$1 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $43 | $38 | -$5 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $10.85 | $10.26 | -$0.59 | 53% 1413-1258 (2671) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.64 | $3.04 | +$0.42 | 50% 21156-21414 (42570) |
Invested
$235.19
Value
$262.59
PnL
+$11.67
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
VeryLucky888Invested
$121
Value
$122
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Invested
$43
Value
$38
PnL
-$5
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
1413-1258 (2671)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.42
Record
50%
21156-21414 (42570)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.