Will SK Iberia 1999 win on 2026-11-05?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$310.16
$0.65
95.1¢ → 95.7¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.3¢ | $110 | $105.11 | +$0.28 | 52% 1352-1271 (2623) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95¢ | $100 | $95.55 | +$0.55 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $50 | $47.78 | +$0.23 | 51% 1359-1321 (2680) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $30 | $28.67 | +$0.17 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $40.57 | $18.07 | +$0.15 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $225.59 | $14.31 | -$0.68 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $15.29 | $0.68 | -$0.04 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
Invested
$110
Value
$105.11
PnL
+$0.28
Record
52%
1352-1271 (2623)
Invested
$100
Value
$95.55
PnL
+$0.55
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$50
Value
$47.78
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
1359-1321 (2680)
Invested
$30
Value
$28.67
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
Invested
$40.57
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$0.15
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$225.59
Value
$14.31
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.04
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.