Spread: K. Sint-Truidense VV (-2.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SK Brann (20%) · SK Brann at 79¢ · $177 held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
SK Brann
5
SK Brann 20%
$176.68
-$5.73
Research grade
NeutralSK Brann at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | SK Brannavg 82.6¢ | $143.74 | $142.68 | -$6.28 | 50% 28410-28315 (56725) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | K. Sint-Truidense VVavg 18.7¢ | $12.74 | $11.56 | -$1.18 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | K. Sint-Truidense VVavg 17¢ | $9.35 | $11.55 | +$2.2 | 49% 3325-3528 (6853) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | K. Sint-Truidense VVavg 17.8¢ | $10.15 | $9.69 | -$0.46 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | K. Sint-Truidense VVavg 17¢ | $1.2 | $1.2 | +$0 | 51% 37659-36887 (74546) |
Invested
$143.74
Value
$142.68
PnL
-$6.28
Record
50%
28410-28315 (56725)
Invested
$12.74
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$1.18
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$2.2
Record
49%
3325-3528 (6853)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$0.46
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
37659-36887 (74546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.