Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-11-05?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 33¢ · $635 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$634.65
-$5.35
32.8¢ → 32.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $1.2K | $389.67 | -$6.44 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $328.48 | $106.76 | +$1.64 | 64% 9816-5452 (15268) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $214.01 | $69.55 | +$1.07 | 64% 9860-5525 (15385) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $41.16 | $39.37 | -$1.79 | 50% 25717-25409 (51126) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.1¢ | $51.59 | $16.77 | +$0.18 | 48% 60543-65164 (125707) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.4¢ | $30.27 | $8.29 | +$0.18 | 58% 46176-33333 (79509) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $13.06 | $4.24 | -$0.2 | 53% 16611-14768 (31379) |
Invested
$1,199
Value
$389.67
PnL
-$6.44
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Invested
$328.48
Value
$106.76
PnL
+$1.64
Record
64%
9816-5452 (15268)
Invested
$214.01
Value
$69.55
PnL
+$1.07
Record
64%
9860-5525 (15385)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$39.37
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
25717-25409 (51126)
Invested
$51.59
Value
$16.77
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
60543-65164 (125707)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.27
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
46176-33333 (79509)
Invested
$13.06
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
16611-14768 (31379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.