Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC Thun vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 25%
$2.2K
$132.65
Research grade
NeutralOver at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 23.5¢ | $540.94 | $1.4K | +$812.45 | 51% 37671-36895 (74566) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 76.9¢ | $1.5K | $791.04 | -$692.87 | 50% 21182-21443 (42625) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 21.8¢ | $10.91 | $29.5 | +$8.5 | 50% 1329-1304 (2633) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 23.9¢ | $3.11 | $7.67 | +$4.56 | 52% 1380-1295 (2675) |
Invested
$540.94
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$812.45
Record
51%
37671-36895 (74566)
Invested
$1,483.91
Value
$791.04
PnL
-$692.87
Record
50%
21182-21443 (42625)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$29.5
PnL
+$8.5
Record
50%
1329-1304 (2633)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$4.56
Record
52%
1380-1295 (2675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.