Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Donstu Esports, while the market favors KUUSAMO.gg (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Closed Qualifier Group D
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Donstu Esports (20%) · Donstu Esports at 50¢ · $535 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Donstu Esports
5
Donstu Esports 20%
$535.3
$24.54
Research grade
NeutralDonstu Esports at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors KUUSAMO.gg 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | Donstu Esportsavg 49¢ | $724.55 | $420.43 | +$10.54 | 75% 106-36 (142) |
 HRTrading<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 51.2¢ | $49.44 | $48.4 | -$0.95 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
GT gt7238<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 30¢ | $21.86 | $36.79 | +$14.94 | 45% 626-762 (1388) |
 poshposh<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 51¢ | $22.19 | $21.97 | -$0.22 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 49¢ | $7.48 | $7.71 | +$0.23 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
Invested
$724.55
Value
$420.43
PnL
+$10.54
Record
75%
106-36 (142)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$49.44
Value
$48.4
PnL
-$0.95
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$21.86
Value
$36.79
PnL
+$14.94
Record
45%
626-762 (1388)
poshposh<$100Invested
$22.19
Value
$21.97
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$7.71
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.