Consensus PnL $1.0K · win rate 52% (631–584, n=1215) · was PM monthly #895 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.0K
Record
631W / 584L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1215 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1622
Source
PM monthly #895
Trades
185
Markets
1,436
Volume
$371.0K
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 21 on the consensus side (71%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $63 · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 69)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $57 · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?No $33 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $31 · now 89¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $30 · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $30 · now 76¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (74% of 39)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes $29 · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No $15 · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (89% of 20)
Specialties
444 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+42 pts
side won 95% of 44 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +27%
- NFL
+42 pts
side won 94% of 17 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +16%
- NBA
+33 pts
side won 81% of 53 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 44% of 52)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 74% of 97)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 87% of 214)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 94% of 81)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.