Consensus PnL $393K · win rate 64% (6225–3432, n=9657) · was PM monthly #994 · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$393.1K
Record
6225W / 3432L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 9657 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#959
Source
PM monthly #994
Trades
11,274
Markets
18,167
Volume
$5.2M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 53 on the consensus side (47%)- Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs ZimbabweAfghanistan $1.2K · now 94¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will CD La Serena win on 2026-11-01?No $1.1K · now 61¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Pokhara AvengersJanakpur Bolts $1.0K · now 100¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 7)
- AS Gubbio vs. Vis Pesaro 1898: O/U 2.5Over $777 · now 13¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Under)
- M15 João Pessoa: Tomas Martinez vs Oscar Jose GutierrezTomas Martinez $350 · now 44¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Oscar Jose Gutierrez)
- Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis KlokDenis Klok $336 · now 7¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (70% of 13)
- Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?No $314 · now 80¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake PlayoffsWBT Academy $275 · now 71¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Iberian Soul)
Specialties
2,807 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 70¢- NBA
+45 pts
side won 100% of 159 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +45%
- NFL
+36 pts
side won 100% of 82 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +36%
- Tennis
+32 pts
side won 100% of 411 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 99% of 140)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 440)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 100% of 724)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 100% of 1503)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.