Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs SANCTUM (BO3) - United21 Group C
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold NAVI Junior (83%) · NAVI Junior at 87¢ · $984 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
NAVI Junior
6
NAVI Junior 83%
$984.43
$7.61
87.1¢ → 86.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNAVI Junior at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | NAVI Junioravg 86.9¢ | $655.98 | $657.76 | +$1.78 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
GA Gaditima | NAVI Junioravg 87.6¢ | $268.22 | $270.87 | +$2.65 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | SANCTUMavg 10.5¢ | $31.56 | $34.64 | +$3.07 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | NAVI Junioravg 86¢ | $9.46 | $9.52 | +$0.05 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | NAVI Junioravg 88.3¢ | $7.2 | $7.22 | +$0.02 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
SE sentrio<$100 | NAVI Junioravg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.43 | +$0.02 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
Invested
$655.98
Value
$657.76
PnL
+$1.78
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Invested
$268.22
Value
$270.87
PnL
+$2.65
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$31.56
Value
$34.64
PnL
+$3.07
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$9.46
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.22
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.