Consensus PnL -$213K · win rate 46% (3637–4222, n=7859) · PM monthly #498 · holds 263 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-213.4K
Record
3637W / 4222L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 7859 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2134
Source
PM monthly #498
Record (90 d)
3628/8080 · 45%
Trades
1,862
Markets
13,456
Volume
$22.9M
Top consensus positions
263 in listed consensus markets · 127 of 263 on the consensus side (48%)- Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes $11K · now 53¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (57% of 23)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No $10K · now 53¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (42% of 24)
- Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes $9.9K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (68% of 22)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.3K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (59% of 39)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $7.1K · now 70¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 58)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $6.8K · now 67¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 19)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $6.7K · now 56¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes $6.7K · now 79¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
6,510 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 46¢- College Football
+3 pts
side won 53% of 572 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- NFL
+2 pts
side won 52% of 503 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+4 pts
side won 49% of 200 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 41% of 1335 at an average 43¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 7% of 2259)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 36% of 1122)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 62% of 1380)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 89% of 1749)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.