Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold RED Canids Academy, while the market favors Grêmio Esports (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Grêmio Esports (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffs

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold RED Canids Academy (80%) · RED Canids Academy at 46¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 10

RED Canids Academy46¢Grêmio Esports54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RED Canids Academy

Consensus Traders

RED Canids Academy 80%

Total Value

$460.95

Combined PnL

-$0.6

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 45.5¢

-20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRED Canids Academy at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RED Canids Academy

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Grêmio Esports 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

RED Canids Academy46%

Grêmio Esports55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RED Canids Academy4 traders

Total Value$370.54

Total Shares644

Combined PnL+$5.93

Grêmio Esports1 trader

Total Value$90.41

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$6.52

RED Canids Academy — 80%Grêmio Esports — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 58.1¢	$233.03	$230.54	-$2.5	—
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Grêmio Esportsavg 45.6¢	$96.93	$90.41	-$6.52	—
31 319113331313111CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 50¢	$60	$69	+$9	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 58.3¢	$51.04	$48.34	-$0.51	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 57.7¢	$22.73	$22.66	-$0.07	—

GaditimaCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$233.03

Value

$230.54

PnL

-$2.5

Record

—

glennyorkshire<$100

Grêmio Esports

Invested

$96.93

Value

$90.41

PnL

-$6.52

Record

—

319113331313111CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$60

Value

$69

PnL

+$9

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$51.04

Value

$48.34

PnL

-$0.51

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$22.73

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralRED Canids Academy at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

RED Canids Academy

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Grêmio Esports 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RED Canids Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.